The Redfin Real-Time Price Tracker is a monthly report on home prices, sales and inventory across 19 U.S. markets, published weeks before any other index, based on the local databases used directly by real estate agents to list properties and record sales.
The typical spring surge of home sales combined with another dip in listings, continued to drive up home prices across the nation in March. Home prices were up both year over year and month over month in every market but Long Island. Home buyers hoping to take advantage of low rates are facing stiff competition and scarce selection. Until interest rates rise or listings begin to increase, the extreme seller?s market will continue.
The key metrics across 19 major metropolitan markets are:
- Home sales rose 25% from February, but were barely up from 2012, rising just 0.9% year-over-year, the smallest gain in 14 months.
- The number of homes for sale declined 31% from March 2012 to March 2013 (a slight improvement over the 32% drop in February), and were flat month over month.
- Home prices in March increased 15% year over year, and rose 6% just since February.
- The percentage of listings that were under contract within 14 days of their debut inched up yet again from 33.2% in February to 34.8% in March, the highest point on record.
With sale-to-list ratios exceeding 100% and buyers facing multiple offers on over three quarters of Redfin deals, the spring homebuying season is living up to our January prediction of being the most hectic in years.
Sales Volume Up, But Dampened by Limited Inventory
Home sales shot up between February and March, as they do every year. However, after turning in a 12% year-over-year gain in January and a 2% gain in February, year-over-year growth in sales shrank to less than 1% in March.
Ten of the 19 markets we track saw sales increase from a year ago, one fewer than in February. However, more homes sold in March than in February in every market.
March 2013 Changes in Closed Sales of Single-Family Homes| Metropolitan Statistical Area | # of Houses Sold | Yearly Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin | 1,947 | 10.9% | 30.4% |
| Baltimore | 1,186 | -14.8% | 17.5% |
| Boston | 2,040 | 3.4% | 39.9% |
| Chicago | 5,060 | 19.0% | 28.0% |
| Denver | 3,540 | 35.4% | 35.0% |
| Inland Empire | 4,926 | -12.4% | 17.2% |
| Las Vegas | 3,025 | -19.4% | 1.4% |
| Long Island | 1,500 | 3.3% | 11.9% |
| Los Angeles | 7,311 | 3.5% | 31.2% |
| Philadelphia | 2,779 | 14.2% | 32.1% |
| Phoenix | 7,605 | -10.7% | 19.0% |
| Portland | 2,358 | 19.1% | 38.4% |
| Sacramento | 2,845 | -3.0% | 25.9% |
| San Diego | 2,458 | 13.4% | 34.8% |
| San Francisco | 2,746 | -13.5% | 16.6% |
| San Jose | 1,153 | -7.3% | 39.3% |
| Seattle | 3,750 | 16.8% | 34.8% |
| Ventura | 608 | -0.2% | 27.5% |
| Washington | 3,099 | -5.4% | 22.3% |
| National | 59,937 | 0.9% | 25.1% |
Home Prices Up from 2012 in 18 of 19 Cities
Nationally, home prices in March were 15 percent higher than a year earlier. March marks a full year since national prices began increasing year-over-year. Prices gained big month-over-month, rising 6.2 percent from February. Eighteen of the 19 metro areas that Redfin measures saw month-over-month increases in January, up from 15 metros showing an increase in February.
San Francisco, Las Vegas, and Phoenix turned in the largest year-over-year price increases, gaining 32 percent, 29 percent, and 29 percent, respectively. The only metro area that did not increase year over year or month over month was Long Island, where prices fell just 0.3 percent from a year ago.
March 2013 Changes in Median $/Square Foot, Single-Family Homes| Metropolitan Statistical Area | Median $/SqFt | Yearly Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin | $108 | 6.1% | 3.5% |
| Baltimore | $170 | 8.5% | 9.6% |
| Boston | $200 | 4.2% | 4.3% |
| Chicago | $107 | 5.4% | 6.7% |
| Denver | $157 | 17.3% | 4.7% |
| Inland Empire | $121 | 20.7% | 5.3% |
| Las Vegas | $87 | 29.2% | 5.5% |
| Long Island | $238 | -0.3% | -3.9% |
| Los Angeles | $280 | 17.3% | 2.9% |
| Philadelphia | $128 | 4.0% | 7.1% |
| Phoenix | $98 | 28.5% | 3.5% |
| Portland | $148 | 15.2% | 5.1% |
| Sacramento | $139 | 27.3% | 3.1% |
| San Diego | $239 | 18.5% | 4.5% |
| San Francisco | $344 | 31.7% | 23.7% |
| San Jose | $416 | 24.1% | 11.1% |
| Seattle | $157 | 12.6% | 4.3% |
| Ventura | $255 | 16.8% | 5.6% |
| Washington | $190 | 8.4% | 5.2% |
| National | $192 | 15.0% | 6.2% |
Inventory Shows No Signs of Improving
You know that inventory is in sad shape when it feels like good news to have a month where the number of listings on the market stays flat. That?s exactly what happened in March, as the total number of homes for sale fell just 0.1 percent compared to February. The year-over-year decline was bad, but not as bad as it has been, with inventory dropping ?just? 30.6 percent from March 2012. Inventory has now been dropping year-over-year for 25 months in a row.
March 2013 Changes in Number of Single-Family Homes for Sale| Metropolitan Statistical Area | # of Houses for Sale | Yearly Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin | 4,572 | -31.3% | 2.6% |
| Baltimore | 5,653 | -21.9% | 2.6% |
| Boston | 6,751 | -50.4% | 3.1% |
| Chicago | 29,371 | -8.9% | 4.3% |
| Denver | 4,489 | -37.8% | -2.6% |
| Inland Empire | 7,417 | -51.9% | -6.7% |
| Las Vegas | 12,111 | -27.3% | -4.2% |
| Long Island | 12,748 | -21.2% | 1.2% |
| Los Angeles | 8,789 | -56.4% | -6.8% |
| Philadelphia | 19,804 | -14.7% | 4.9% |
| Phoenix | 15,619 | 5.5% | -5.1% |
| Portland | 5,681 | -28.5% | -1.6% |
| Sacramento | 2,862 | -66.4% | 0.6% |
| San Diego | 3,232 | -47.6% | -3.3% |
| San Francisco | 2,410 | -55.6% | -3.7% |
| San Jose | 915 | -47.4% | -1.3% |
| Seattle | 6,414 | -40.5% | -3.5% |
| Ventura | 801 | -52.7% | -2.6% |
| Washington | 8,555 | -30.5% | 3.3% |
| National | 158,194 | -30.6% | -0.1% |
Percent of Listings Selling Within Two Weeks Climbs Again
From March 1 through 26 (14 days before the data was collected), 34.8 percent of new listings were under contract in two weeks or less, an increase of 1.6 percentage points over February. If 2013 follows the same pattern as 2012, this number will increase again in April, then level off through the summer.
% of Listings Under Contract in 14 Days| Metropolitan Statistical Area | % Sold within 14 Days of Debut |
|---|---|
| Austin | 44.7% |
| Baltimore | 29.1% |
| Boston | 3.3% |
| Chicago | 12.0% |
| Denver | 51.6% |
| Inland Empire | 50.5% |
| Las Vegas | 14.0% |
| Long Island | 8.6% |
| Los Angeles | 52.4% |
| Philadelphia | 9.4% |
| Phoenix | 36.6% |
| Portland | 41.2% |
| Sacramento | 12.7% |
| San Diego | 50.2% |
| San Francisco | 60.0% |
| San Jose | 64.0% |
| Seattle | 48.4% |
| Ventura | 52.0% |
| Washington | 43.3% |
| National | 34.8% |
About the Real-Time Home Price Tracker
Redfin?s monthly report on home prices, inventory levels and sales volume is an up-to-date, accurate portrait of the U.S. real estate market, coming weeks or months ahead of other market reports. As a broker with access to dozens of Multiple Listing Services (MLSs) used by real estate agents to list properties and record sales, Redfin gets data within minutes of a sale, pending sale or listing activation, well before any government, media or analytics organization. Using MLS fields, Redfin is able to distinguish houses from condominiums and townhouses ? which often sell for less money.
To validate the accuracy of the data and to account for sales not handled by a real estate agent, Redfin compares MLS data with county records as they become available, using sophisticated algorithms to identify and resolve disparities about square footage or price for each address. Full data may be downloaded in a spreadsheet (xls), and the report methodology is available as an Adobe document.
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